Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Team Week 4 preview: Trap or Die.

 

Mike D: Overdue Bills Senior Writer

First, of all, leave right now and buy your Overdue Bills Merch. Now that’ll you’re back, what a win! From the very beginning of the game, Buffalo showed they were going to dominate their inferior opponent. Offensive and defensive, it was complimentary football and a great win. While they were looking like the best team in the AFC, Kansas City was losing their second straight game. Imagine how Josh must feel. Lamar and Justin Herbert just beat Mahomes. I'm sure #17 wants a piece of him as well. It's only one issue unfortunately, we play Davis Mills and the Houston Texans. I am overlooking them, you were overlooking them, and the players probably are too. Therefore, this can be the perfect example of a "Trap game". If you arent familiar with the term, let me explain.

"A trap game is a game played against an opponent generally deemed to be easy to defeat. As a result, a person or team may not prepare, as thoroughly as they would for a formidable opponent. Often this attitude and its attendant lack of preparation lead to a loss." To add on to the definition, the "easy" game is normally before an important game. And that is exactly what we have here. The Bills just dominated a middle of the pack team, and now play one of the worst teams in the NFL, right before playing the AFC Champs on Sunday night? It's a great chance Buffalo runs a vanilla offense to avoid using any of their great plays this weekend. I do not doubt they could beat Houston with a preseason game plan. But you may have more faith in the trap game, so let me calm your nerves.

The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective performed a study on the myths of trap games and let-down games (link to the report). While I won't post it here because it is statistics-based and I don't want to bore you, allow me to summarize. They looked at every game for 10 years (2002-2011) where an above .500 team (ie Buffalo) played a below 500. team (ie Houston). The win% for the above .500 team was 79.5%. Then they looked at 515 so-called trap games. Here, the above .500 team won 80.5% of the games (a percent higher). By this study, the Bills are more likely to beat Houston than if they played them another week.

Besides the numbers, this will be a direct reflection of Sean McDermott's culture. If his team comes out there unfocused and committing silly penalties, we will determine that it was due to a lack of discipline throughout the week. But if they come out ready to play, we will know Sean preached to the guys how important this game is, and don't look over ANY opponent in the NFL.

I am extremely happy not to be an NFL player this week. Whenever I would get the schedule for the Hutch Tech HS Varsity Basketball games, I would overlook Performing Arts and Emerson (sorry if that offended you), and I would look for the East and McKinley games. My focus isn't that strong. Luckily for us, Sean has had the boys focused and ready to play for most of his tenure. They take things over there week by week, day by day, snap by snap. This is the correct way to play, and a mantra to live by. You should only focus on the thing ahead of you and get past that, and then focus on the next. And I'm positive Sean and Josh will have the players ready to play Houston. But I know as a fan you are waiting for Week 5 Sunday night because I know I am!

Betting Information

Spread: Houston +17.5 (c'mon its the NFL)

Over/Under: Over 47

Also, check out the great interview below!

References 

  1. “Trap Game.” Urban Dictionary, https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=trap+game.

  2. “Debunking the Trap Game and Letdown Game Myths.” The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, 11 Jan. 2013, https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/debunking-the-trap-game-and-letdown-game-myths/.

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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Week 5 preview: Allen vs Mahomes III

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Buffalo Bills vs Washington Football Team Week 3 preview: By Air or By Land?